Spate of defections show Kim Jong

A new monument that commemorates North Korean defectors who have died while escaping from the repressive regime stands in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, Aug. 1. Courtesy of Ministry of Unification

Residents escape economic hardship; High-level defections also on riseBy Kwak Yeon-soo

A North Korean soldier defected to South Korea, Tuesday, by walking across the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) on the heavily fortified inter-Korean border. The defection occurred about two weeks after a North Korean resident crossed the maritime border in the Han River estuary on the west coast.

In recent years, North Korea's elite, including high-level diplomats stationed abroad, have also defected to the South. The latest defector, Ri Il-gyu, fled from Cuba to South Korea in November of last year.

North Korea watchers and defectors residing in South Korea say these defections might indicate increasing economic hardship in the North and a growing desire for freedom among its residents, driven by access to information about the outside world.

A loudspeaker for propaganda broadcasts is set up in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, June 6. Newsis

They suggested that the recent defections by the soldier and resident may have been influenced by South Korea’s propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts and leaflets, which provide information about the outside world and the reality of the North Korean regime.

Since July 19, South Korea has been conducting full-scale anti-Pyongyang broadcasts through its border loudspeakers, playing news and K-pop music, in response to North Korea's repeated launches of balloons carrying trash.

“I believe a lot of North Koreans have aspirations for a better future. Many defect in search of freedom and for economic reasons," Moon Seong-mook, the chief of the Unification Strategy Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said. "Loudspeaker broadcasts have proven to be successful in persuading North Koreans to defect by exposing the reality of North Korea and sharing what life in South Korea is like. After North Korean leader Kim Jong-un came to power, he’s been so absorbed in developing nuclear and missile programs that he failed to look after his people.”

In recent years, an increasing number of North Korean defectors have cited aspiration for freedom as the primary reason for their escape, surpassing food shortages as the main motivation, according to a survey by the Korea Hana Foundation, an agency affiliated with the Ministry of Unification.

Kim Seung-chul, president of North Korea Reform Radio who defected from the North in 1993, said President Yoon Suk Yeol’s policy of embracing defectors has stirred up complex feelings in the minds of North Koreans.

“South Korea celebrated its first North Korean Defectors’ Day on July 14, and President Yoon’s outreach to 26 million North Korean citizens in his speech is affecting the minds of North Koreans. The loudspeaker campaign and anti-Pyongyang leaflets have also been effective in bringing about change,” Kim said.

Socio-economic factors, such as economic hardship and political oppression, continue to drive North Koreans to flee their country. In the first half of the year, the number of North Korean defectors arriving in South Korea reached 105, a slight increase from 99 in the previous year.

“Although North Korea claims that its economy is back to pre-pandemic levels, the economic and livelihood difficulties of North Koreans deepened. Kim Jong-un has urged its people to fight against anti-socialism without providing enough to feed them. Soldiers are being mobilized to help construct factories in provinces as part of the regime’s 20x10 rural development policy. There must be growing discontent over the repressive regime,” Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said.

Ri Il-gyu, a former senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba who recently defected to South Korea, poses during an interview with Yonhap News Agency, July 23. Yonhap

Another notable trend is the rising number of defections among members of North Korea’s ruling elite. The defection of Ri, who made headlines last month, was particularly significant as he was the highest-ranking North Korean diplomat to defect to South Korea since 2016.

The number of highly educated North Koreans with professional jobs escaping to South Korea has increased. In 2023, about 10 North Koreans identified as members of the country's elite resettled in South Korea, a higher number than in recent years, according to the Unification Ministry. A ministry official attributed the rise in high-level defections to North Korea's pandemic-related economic difficulties and its efforts to strengthen state control over its people.

Ahn Chan-il, a defector-turned-researcher who runs the World Institute for North Korea Studies, said the surge in defections indicates the weakening of the Kim regime.

“It reveals that the Kim Jong-un regime is breaking down and that there is no hope left inside. The treatment of ruling elites has deteriorated over the years, leading them to become disillusioned with the regime,” Ahn said.

Ahn noted that North Koreans now have easier access to information from the outside world. “Approximately 7 million North Koreans have mobile phones these days, giving them greater access to external information. There is increasing discontent among students and diplomats abroad,” he added.

Kim Seung-chul said there is no longer an idolization of Kim Jong-un, noting that the North Korean leader has been struggling to contain the dissatisfaction of residents suffering from recent floods.

“Kim Jong-un recently announced that thousands of flood-affected people would be relocated to Pyongyang until new homes are built. However, his actions and words cannot alleviate the anxiety and anger that residents are currently experiencing. This indicates a decline in his status as the sole leader. There is no longer any idolization of Kim Jong-un,” he said.

He also explained that even North Korean diplomats stationed overseas earn salaries of less than $1,000 a month and often supplement their income by selling alcohol on the black market. Additionally, they are required to purchase luxury goods for bribery purposes when returning home.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits the lodging quarters of victims of different flood-stricken areas in Pyongyang, Aug. 15, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). EPA-Yonhap

North Korea watchers said the fresh batch of defections will have a domino effect, triggering more desertions that will likely undermine the regime.

“About 34,000 North Koreans have defected to South Korea, mostly since the late 1990s. I believe the number of defectors will increase, particularly among those who have lived abroad for extended periods, as it is relatively easier for them,” Ahn said.

The North Korean leader has ordered the construction of new border walls and the installation of additional land mines, but defectors are likely to find ways to circumvent these measures, the analysts viewed.

“North Korea’s construction of anti-tank barriers, reinforcement of guards, and installation of mines are intended to strengthen its defensive positions against South Korea, not necessarily to prevent defections. The North Korean military’s equipment is outdated, and they are building the barriers manually, so progress is slow. They cannot afford surveillance cameras along the border, which will enable defectors to continue crossing,” Hong said.